Learn how to use AI for scenario planning.
Ai-powered Scenario Planning
This workshop explores the process, algorithms, and prompts to create effective scenarios for organizations, products, and individuals. Discover the benefits and purpose of scenario planning to improve decision-making and strategic thinking.
Scenario planning is a strategic framework that helps organizations envision and prepare for multiple plausible futures. Unlike traditional forecasting, it considers a range of possibilities, enabling teams to anticipate change, adapt effectively, and strengthen strategic agility and resilience.
Algorithm/Process
The scenario planning process typically follows these steps:
- Define the Scope○ Determine the time horizon and scope of the scenario planning exercise.
○ Identify the key strategic issue or decision to be addressed. - Identify Key Drivers○ Conduct research to identify the key drivers of change in the external environment (e.g., economic, technological, social, political factors).
○ Use tools such as PESTEL analysis to categorize and analyze these drivers. - Assess Critical Uncertainties○ Determine which drivers are most uncertain and will have the greatest impact on the organization.
○ Prioritize these critical uncertainties for scenario development. - Develop Scenarios○ Create a set of divergent, plausible scenarios based on different combinations of critical uncertainties.
○ Develop detailed narratives for each scenario, describing how the future might unfold under each set of conditions - Analyze Implications○ Assess the potential impact of each scenario on the organization’s strategy and operations.
○ Identify opportunities, risks, and strategic options associated with each scenario. - Develop Action Plans○ Formulate strategic responses and contingency plans for each scenario.
○ Ensure that the organization’s strategy is robust and adaptable across different future scenarios. - Monitor and Update○ Continuously monitor the external environment for signs that suggest which scenario is unfolding.
○ Update scenarios and strategic plans as new information becomes available.
Historical Background
The origins of scenario planning can be traced back to military strategy, particularly during World War II. It was later adapted for business use by Herman Kahn at the RAND Corporation in the 1950s and 1960s.
Key contributors to the development of scenario planning include:
Herman Kahn: A pioneer in applying scenario planning to defense and later to business contexts.
Pierre Wack: A strategist at Royal Dutch Shell who popularized scenario planning in the corporate world during the 1970s.
Peter Schwartz: An influential futurist who further developed the method and applied it across various industries.
Clem Sunter and Chantell Ilbury: Authors of "The Mind of a Fox," who adapted scenario planning to the South African business context and made the method more accessible.
Key contributors to the development of scenario planning include:
Herman Kahn: A pioneer in applying scenario planning to defense and later to business contexts.
Pierre Wack: A strategist at Royal Dutch Shell who popularized scenario planning in the corporate world during the 1970s.
Peter Schwartz: An influential futurist who further developed the method and applied it across various industries.
Clem Sunter and Chantell Ilbury: Authors of "The Mind of a Fox," who adapted scenario planning to the South African business context and made the method more accessible.
Prompts for brainstorming in a strategy session
Copy those prompts into AI-chat and add your context
Prompt 1:
Act as an experienced business consultant, expert in business strategy development, scenario planning, and the business area of my company/product.
I will describe the company/product and the steps of the scenario planning session. Take it step by step. Don't go to the next step until I ask you to.
In the following messages I will set the stage of the planning session for which I need to generate solutions for the described company. Perhaps I will ask to clarify them or offer more options.
Don't go to the next step until I tell you to.
Session steps:
Step 0: Define the Scope
Step 1: Identifying Key Drivers
Step 2: Assessing Critical Uncertainties
Step 3: Developing Scenarios
Step 4: Analyzing Scenario Implications
Step 5: Identifying Strategic Responses / Developing Action Plans
Step 6: Monitoring Indicators
Company/product description and time horizon and key strategic issue I will give in the next message. Ask me clarifying questions.
I will describe the company/product and the steps of the scenario planning session. Take it step by step. Don't go to the next step until I ask you to.
In the following messages I will set the stage of the planning session for which I need to generate solutions for the described company. Perhaps I will ask to clarify them or offer more options.
Don't go to the next step until I tell you to.
Session steps:
Step 0: Define the Scope
Step 1: Identifying Key Drivers
Step 2: Assessing Critical Uncertainties
Step 3: Developing Scenarios
Step 4: Analyzing Scenario Implications
Step 5: Identifying Strategic Responses / Developing Action Plans
Step 6: Monitoring Indicators
Company/product description and time horizon and key strategic issue I will give in the next message. Ask me clarifying questions.
Give AI your context
1) Describe you company/product
2) Determine the time horizon
3) Identify the key strategic issue or decision to be addressed
2) Determine the time horizon
3) Identify the key strategic issue or decision to be addressed
Prompt 2:
Identifying Key Drivers
Now just for Step 1: Identifying Key Drivers, brainstorm and come up with solutions.
- What are the main economic, technological, social, and political factors that could impact our expansion?
- Which of these factors are most uncertain and why?
- How might these factors interact to create different future scenarios?
Prompt 3:
Assessing Critical Uncertainties
Step 2: Assess Critical Uncertainties
- Which of the identified drivers are most unpredictable?
- How significant is the potential impact of each critical uncertainty on our business?
Prompt 4:
Developing Scenarios
Step 3: Proceed with Developing Scenarios
- What are the possible combinations of our critical uncertainties?
- How would each combination shape the future market environment for our company/product?
- What narratives can we create to describe these different futures?
Prompt 5:
Analyzing Scenario Implications
Step 4: Analyze Scenario Implications
- What opportunities and risks does each scenario present?
- How would our operations, marketing, and customer service need to adapt in each scenario?
Prompt 6:
Identifying Strategic Responses / Developing Action Plans
Step 5: Develop Action Plans
- What strategic actions can we take to leverage opportunities and mitigate risks in each scenario?
- What contingency plans should we have in place for each scenario?
Prompt 7:
Monitoring Indicators
Step 6: Define Monitoring Indicators
- What key indicators (flags) will help us monitor which scenario is unfolding?
- How will we track these indicators and respond to changes?
Want to learn more?
Prompts for facilitators and a detailed example are in my book, which you can buy in both printed and Kindle form.
AI-Powered Facilitation: Transforming Workshops from Preparation to Execution
Kindle Edition
"AI-Powered Facilitation" is your ultimate guide to embracing the power of AI in your facilitation practice.
Whether you’re a seasoned facilitator or just starting, the strategies and tools shared here will elevate your practice to new heights.
Buy the book "AI-Powered Facilitation" is your ultimate guide to embracing the power of AI in your facilitation practice.
Whether you’re a seasoned facilitator or just starting, the strategies and tools shared here will elevate your practice to new heights.
Business cases examples
Create your own case, using those for inspiration
Bobby’s Blue — “Bluezone Restaurant & Event Location”
Company: Bobby’s Blue in Weesp is a restaurant and event venue inspired by the “Blue Zones,” regions where people live longer, healthier lives. It combines seasonal, locally sourced dishes with a warm, community-focused atmosphere. Beyond dining, it hosts private and corporate events, offers takeaway meals and specialty products, and runs a Future Health Lab with lifestyle and nutrition services.
With its mix of restaurant, events, shop, and wellness activities, Bobby’s Blue stands out in the Dutch hospitality market. Yet, operating in the small town of Weesp limits its local customer base. The business must decide whether to grow as a local community hub, become a destination for visitors from Amsterdam and beyond, or diversify into new formats such as catering, digital services, or additional locations.
Time horizon: 3–5 years
Key strategic issue: Balancing local roots with scalable growth opportunities.
With its mix of restaurant, events, shop, and wellness activities, Bobby’s Blue stands out in the Dutch hospitality market. Yet, operating in the small town of Weesp limits its local customer base. The business must decide whether to grow as a local community hub, become a destination for visitors from Amsterdam and beyond, or diversify into new formats such as catering, digital services, or additional locations.
Time horizon: 3–5 years
Key strategic issue: Balancing local roots with scalable growth opportunities.
DataShield NL
Company: A cybersecurity solutions provider based in Utrecht, specializing in advanced threat detection, compliance tools, and data protection for SMEs across the Netherlands. Known for its user-friendly platforms and strong customer support.
Time horizon: 3–5 years
Strategic issue: With the rise of AI-driven attacks and stricter EU data protection regulations, DataShield NL must decide whether to invest heavily in developing proprietary AI-based defense systems, partner with international vendors, or focus on niche compliance services tailored to Dutch SMEs.
Time horizon: 3–5 years
Strategic issue: With the rise of AI-driven attacks and stricter EU data protection regulations, DataShield NL must decide whether to invest heavily in developing proprietary AI-based defense systems, partner with international vendors, or focus on niche compliance services tailored to Dutch SMEs.
MedAI Diagnostics
Company: A healthtech startup in Eindhoven developing AI-based diagnostic tools for hospitals and clinics. Currently piloting with several Dutch hospitals and known for strong partnerships with local universities.
Time horizon: 3–5 years
Strategic issue: The company must choose between focusing on domestic scaling in the regulated Dutch market, or pursuing faster international growth in countries with more flexible healthcare regulations, while balancing compliance and patient trust.
Time horizon: 3–5 years
Strategic issue: The company must choose between focusing on domestic scaling in the regulated Dutch market, or pursuing faster international growth in countries with more flexible healthcare regulations, while balancing compliance and patient trust.
Product Case: FlowSync – AI Productivity Assistant
Product: FlowSync is an AI-powered productivity assistant app developed in Amsterdam, designed to help knowledge workers prioritize tasks, summarize meetings, and integrate seamlessly with existing tools like Outlook, Slack, and Teams. The app is praised for its clean interface and strong data privacy features.
Time horizon: 2–3 years
Strategic issue: As competition from global tech giants intensifies, FlowSync’s product team must decide whether to differentiate by focusing on privacy-first AI for European users, or pivot towards niche features tailored for specific sectors (e.g., legal, healthcare, government).
Time horizon: 2–3 years
Strategic issue: As competition from global tech giants intensifies, FlowSync’s product team must decide whether to differentiate by focusing on privacy-first AI for European users, or pivot towards niche features tailored for specific sectors (e.g., legal, healthcare, government).
Individual Case: Freelance Data Scientist
Professional: A mid-career freelance data scientist based in The Hague, specializing in predictive analytics for SMEs. Known for strong skills in Python and machine learning, as well as flexibility and client focus. The freelancer works on short-term projects and maintains a stable local client base.
Time horizon: 3–5 years
Strategic issue: With AI tools increasingly automating parts of data science workflows, the professional must decide whether to:
Time horizon: 3–5 years
Strategic issue: With AI tools increasingly automating parts of data science workflows, the professional must decide whether to:
- Deepen expertise in high-value niches like AI ethics, explainable AI, or regulatory compliance;
- Broaden services by moving into consulting and business transformation;
- Or scale impact by building a small agency and hiring junior data analysts.
Get in touch
If you have questions about the AI Scenario Planning Workshop, please contact me
